USD/CAD: Trend reversal at overbought suggest us to short

Overview:– Pair is showing too much volatility and heading towards north side and marked a high of 1.4666 but the journey was started from 1.3220 level and since then bulls took the control and dominated the bears at every level. The pair was making successively higher highs and higher lows by taking the support of an uptrend line. But after arriving at 1.4666 levels it seems like bulls are taking some rest and getting down for some correction or some profit booking is going on.

Technical Analysis:– A rickshaw man doji candlestick at the top of the day at key resistance level is suggesting us to keep bearish view on the pair from intraday point of view. It’s just a starting we will get further bearish signal below the 1.4150 level. It seems like bears have snatched the bite from bull’s mouth and it’s time to sell the pair with good risk and reward ratio.

Earlier bulls were driving the car and heading north side but now they are trying to hand over the game in the bear’s hand which will be an early call, but if today bears able to take it down below 1.4250 level then it will be confirmation of bears stake and it will open the way towards the 1.3500 level in near term. Overall pair is trading above all the major and minor EMA line which is providing strength in the pair so it is not going to be easy for bears.

The RSI turned down from overbought territory which is a recent development and providing trend reversal signal whereas a bullish crossover on the MACD indicator is still providing us bullish signal. Odds are in favor of bears and intraday bias remains bearish on the pair as long as 1.4580 level remains intact. It’s an early sell call but there is good risk and reward ratio to sell the pair here.

 

Fundamental Analysis:- The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick to levels beyond the 1.3800 round-figure mark and has now drifted into the negative territory amid some renewed US dollar selling. Growing market concerns about the economic impact of the corona virus continued weighing on investors’ sentiment and the same was evident from a selloff across the global equity markets.

The already weaker sentiment took another blow after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic and the US President Donald Trump suspended all travel from Europe for 30 days. The anti-risk flow was further reinforced by a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which kept the USD bulls on the defensive and prompted some profit-taking around the major. Meanwhile, the USD failed to gain any respite from the fact that Democrats on Wednesday unveiled a broad package of proposals to help Americans affected by the corona virus outbreak.

What next:-  The 1.4500 level is key resistance level followed by 1.4580 level whereas 1.4250 level is key support level follwed by 1.4200 level.

Trade idea:- Based on chart and studies above we can suggest to our readers that go for sell around 1.4390 level for the target of 1.4250 level and 1.4100 and 1.4000 with the tight stop loss of 1.4600 level.



Leave a Reply