Overview:- By analyzing the daily technical chart we can see that earlier bulls were doing well and they marked a fresh high of the year at 2.0850 level but they could not sustain at their and slipped to 1.9775.During this downfall bears breached the aggressive uptrend line and an intermediate uptrend line also which was the last hope of bulls. Well the downside breakout is clear indication to be in sell side. Today is Friday so today’s weekly closing matter’s a lot for further direction.
Technical Analysis:- The short term to intermediate term trend has been shifted from up to down and in an downtrend market always sell on and covert every bounce as an shorting opportunity. Overall pair is trading below the moving average lines which itself showing some weakness in the pair and momentum is also with the bears which is also pushing us to keep our view bearish. Odds are in favor of bears and intraday to weekly bias remains bearish on the pair.
A bearish marabuzo candlestick has been posted on yesterday below the moving average lines which is indicating further bearish signal and we will keep our view bearish on GBP pairs where it is a base currency due to decline in retail sales. The way bears are reacting it seems like they are pulling up their socks to arrive at 1.9000 level in near term.
Fundamental Analysis:- All GBP pairs are falling down due to UK Retail Sales dropped by 5.1% in March, worse than expected. The market mood is somewhat damp amid dismal global economic data.
What next :- Bears are controlling the game since last few weeks even now they are getting stronger . The RSI is also supporting the bears from negative territory whereas MACD is not favoring the bears with downside crossover of MACD line and signal line. The both mentioned line also crossed down the zero line which is providing us bearish signal. The 1.9200 level can be considered as key support level followed by 1.9050 level whereas 1.9400 will be a strong support level followed by 1.9500.
Trade idea:- Traders are advised to go for short at current levels i.e. 1.9385 for the target of 1.9200 and 1.9000 with the strict stop loss of 1.9450.
