Overview: – By analyzing the daily technical chart we can see that overall pair is moving downside from past couple of days. Well the down side momentum can be seen on the daily chart where bears took the charge From last couple of weeks. We can see the bearish sentiments and pair is heading towards south side. Well the way bears are reacting it seems like they are approaching the 0.9500 level once again in near term.
Fundamentally there is a tension between US and Iran now, where most of the pairs where USD is the base currency are heading north side which is itself a point of concern that when this issue or war is going to be closed. Even yesterday night president Donald trump said there were no American casualties in the overnight Iranian missile strikes and that Tehran appeared to be standing down, easing concerns of an all out conflict in the middle east.
Technical Analysis:- From technical prospective we can see that pair has breached out all the moving average and sustaining below the lines. A downtrend line has been lying and pair is trading below the downtrend line. Odds are in favor of bears and intraday bias remains bearish on the pair as long as 0.9800 level remains intact.
Well there was a fabulous selling from 1.0000 level to 0.9670 level but after arriving at that level we have seen some counter attack from bull’s side which indicates that bears are denied to move down further or they are taking some rest. So some correction can’t be ruled out. So any bounce will be taken as selling opportunity.
It’s just a starting further selling is still awaited and we may see panic selling near 0.9750-60 level, if bears are able to break the 0.9700 level and provides daily closing below this level then we may see strong selling. RSI is turned up after testing the oversold territory which is also favoring the bears and suggesting that bears may lead further. A bearish crossover on the MACD indicator occurred which indicates that now bears will play at the front foot again and will dominate the bulls.
What next :- The 0.9800 is key resistance level followed by 0.9850 level whereas 0.9670 level which is a key support level followed by 0.9600 level.
Trade idea:- Based on the chart and study above we can suggest go for short at current levels 0.9750-60 for the target of 0.9700 and 0.9650 stop loss is 0.9820.
